Alianza Valledupar vs Independiente Santa Fe: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Colombian Primera A Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe
Result
6:1
25/05/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Primera A - Apertura - Round 20
  • Referee: Mayorga Londono J. A. (Col)
Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.47
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
116
Shots on target
62
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
34
Passes
82% (254/311)74% (176/238)
Yellow Cards
02
Expected Goals (xG)
1.620.47
xG on target (xGOT)
2.810.67
Total shots
116
Shots on target
62
Shots off target
33
Blocked Shots
21
Shots inside the Box
71
Shots outside the Box
45
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
20
Big Chances
41
Corner Kicks
34
Touches in opposition box
1310
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
31
Free Kicks
1213
Passes
82% (254/311)74% (176/238)
Long passes
38% (18/47)55% (22/40)
Passes in final third
70% (56/80)54% (33/61)
Crosses
38% (5/13)10% (1/10)
Expected assists (xA)
1.320.38
Throw-ins
917
Fouls
1312
Tackles
73% (8/11)67% (6/9)
Duels won
3332
Clearances
1310
Interceptions
36
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
11
xGOT faced
0.672.81
Goals prevented
-0.33-2.19

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (3 - 0)
  • 2', 1 - 0, Rodriguez A. (Own goal),
  • 15', 2 - 0, Vergara C. , Torres E. (A),
  • 38', 3 - 0, Colpa Bolano R. R. , Torres E. (A),
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 46', Albornoz O. , Ararat J. ,
  • 46', Angulo L. , Balanta M. ,
  • 54', 3 - 1, Rodriguez A. , Fernandez O. (A),
  • 61', Pardo F. , Gil M. ,
  • 65', Lopez E. 🟨,
  • 68', Angulo J. , Campos J. ,
  • 77', 4 - 1, Gil M. ,
  • 79', Fernandez O. , Zea J. ,
  • 79', Torres E. , Munoz J. ,
  • 80', Vergara C. , Caracas Torres J. S. ,
  • 80', Garcia J. , Figueroa J. ,
  • 85', Molina T. 🟨,
  • 87', 5 - 1, Figueroa J. ,
  • 90', Fernandez W. , Valoyes J. ,
  • 90', Perlaza E. , Arenas J. ,
  • 90+4', 6 - 1, Valoyes J. ,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/5c6addcd

Chances of winning


Alianza Valledupar
45.7%
Draw
25%
Independiente Santa Fe
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.6% 30% 33.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1% 31.2% 32%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alianza Valledupar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Valledupar's performance.
  • Independiente Santa Fe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Valledupar that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Santa Fe than the current prediction. (+2.7%)
  • Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.05
    (2.5)
    3.7
    (3.05)
    3.21
    (2.75)
    6.8%
    (9.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe?
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.5 - Alianza (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Alianza Valledupar will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 66.11%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Alianza Valledupar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • Santa Fe is Qualified for Primera A (Apertura ~ Quadrangular )
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 3.
    • Alianza has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Santa Fe is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Alianza may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Alianza is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 0.9:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.1:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe were as follows:
    26.09.2024 Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar 2:0
    03.03.2024 Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe 0:1
    17.09.2023 Independiente Santa Fe - Alianza Valledupar 0:1
    09.04.2023 Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe 3:1
    10.10.2022 Alianza Valledupar - Independiente Santa Fe 4:0
    Colombian Primera A Table
    Apertura - Quadrangular

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Ind. Medellin32105:237
    2America De Cali31204:315
    3Deportes Tolima30213:5-22
    4Junior30122:4-21


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Santa Fe32014:316
    2Millonarios31201:015
    3Atl. Nacional30211:2-12
    4Once Caldas30211:2-12

          Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Final)

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