Alianza Lima vs Universitario de Deportes: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/04/2025 at 20:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima).

: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 7
Referee: Ureta D. (Per)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.26	0.42
Ball Possession
33%	67%
Total shots
5	7
Shots on target
1	1
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
2	2
Passes
66% (123/187)	83% (321/385)
Yellow Cards
2	5
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.26	0.42
xG on target (xGOT)
0.25	0.45
Total shots
5	7
Shots on target
1	1
Shots off target
1	5
Blocked Shots
3	1
Shots inside the Box
2	3
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	1
Corner Kicks
2	2
Touches in opposition box
8	10
Offsides
2	1
Free Kicks
19	13
Passes
66% (123/187)	83% (321/385)
Long passes
49% (26/53)	58% (26/45)
Passes in final third
46% (33/72)	73% (83/114)
Crosses
8% (1/13)	22% (5/23)
Expected assists (xA)
0.26	1.01
Fouls
13	19
Tackles
89% (8/9)	75% (6/8)
Duels won
46	30
Clearances Total
31	32
Interceptions
9	2
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	0
xGOT faced
0.45	0.25
Goals prevented
-0.55	-0.75

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
16', Lavandeira Hernandez P. 🟥,
35', Murrugarra J. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Quevedo K. ⚽, Castillo E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Concha J. ↓, Rivera J. ↑,
49', Carabali J. 🟨,
56', Carabali J. ↓, Velez J. ↑,
56', Murrugarra J. ↓, Calcaterra H. ↑,
67', Quevedo K. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
69', Urena R. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
72', Calcaterra H. 🟨,
74', Flores E. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,
77', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
79', Riveros W. 🟨,
80', Cantero A. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
84', Castillo J. 🟨,
90+5', 1 - 1, Rivera J. ⚽,
90+5', Rivera J. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Alianza Lima
41.7%

Draw
30.3%

Universitario de Deportes
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.2%

31.6%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

32.4%

30.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Universitario de Deportes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universitario de Deportes than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↓ (2.54)	3.04 ↑ (3)	3.34 ↑ (3.04)	7.8% (5.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes?

The most likely score is 1:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most exciting matches of the day will feature two top-of-the-table teams (ranked 4 and 3).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 0.
Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Uni de Deportes is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Uni de Deportes could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
Recently Uni de Deportes have a series of home games.
Alianza Lima will have a mini benefit in this match.
There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Trauco M. (Injury)
There are questionable in Uni de Deportes: Di Benedetto M. (Injury) Perez M. (Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 9 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 25:24 (average 1.3:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Lima won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9:9 (average 1:1).

How many head-to-head matches has Alianza Lima won against Universitario de Deportes?

Alianza Lima has won 1 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Universitario de Deportes won against Alianza Lima?

Universitario de Deportes has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes were as follows:

26.07.2024 Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima 2:1

10.02.2024 Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes 0:1

08.11.2023 Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes 0:2

04.11.2023 Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Lima 1:1

22.07.2023 Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes 0:0

Latest results of Alianza Lima

01.04.2025 Alianza Lima - Libertad Asuncion 0:1 ✺

29.03.2025 ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima 3:0 ✺

11.03.2025 Alianza Lima - Deportes Iquique 1:1 ✺

07.03.2025 Alianza Lima - Ayacucho 2:0 ✺

04.03.2025 Deportes Iquique - Alianza Lima 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Universitario de Deportes

02.04.2025 Universitario de Deportes - River Plate 0:1 ✺

28.03.2025 Universitario de Deportes - Sport Huancayo 3:1 ✺

09.03.2025 Sport Boys - Universitario de Deportes 0:2 ✺

02.03.2025 Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco 4:0 ✺

23.02.2025 Atlético Grau - Universitario de Deportes Postponed ✺

Peruvian Liga 1 Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	U. de Deportes	11	7	2	2	27:10	17	23
2	FBC Melgar	11	7	2	2	20:12	8	23
3	Sporting Cristal	12	7	1	4	22:15	7	22
4	Alianza Atl	12	7	1	4	18:11	7	22
5	Sport Huancayo	12	7	1	4	19:15	4	22
6	Cusco	12	6	2	4	23:17	6	20
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	13	6	2	5	20:14	6	20
8	Alianza Lima	11	6	2	3	13:10	3	20
9	AD Tarma	13	5	4	4	22:23	-1	19
10	Sport Boys	11	4	4	3	20:19	1	16
11	Los Chankas	12	3	6	3	17:17	0	15
12	Cajamarca	12	4	2	6	13:23	-10	14
13	Cienciano	11	3	4	4	16:17	-1	13
14	Binacional	11	3	3	5	14:19	-5	12
15	Grau	10	2	5	3	13:17	-4	11
16	Juan Pablo II	10	2	2	6	11:16	-5	8
17	Comerciantes Unidos	11	1	5	5	13:21	-8	8
18	Alianza Huanuco	11	1	3	7	10:22	-12	6
19	Ayacucho	12	1	3	8	9:22	-13	6

Promotion ~ Liga 1 (Play Offs: )

Which TV channels are streaming of Alianza Lima - Universitario de Deportes?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz