FBC Melgar vs Alianza Lima: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Soccer Peruvian Liga 1 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima
Result
0:1
28/06/2025 at 19:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 17
  • Referee: Espinoza J. (Per)
FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.26
Ball Possession
62%38%
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
54
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
65
Passes
85% (383/451)76% (218/287)
Yellow Cards
53
Expected Goals (xG)
0.751.26
xG on target (xGOT)
0.900.87
Total shots
1410
Shots on target
54
Shots off target
64
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
84
Shots outside the Box
66
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
65
Touches in opposition box
1711
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
912
Passes
85% (383/451)76% (218/287)
Long passes
55% (40/73)52% (26/50)
Passes in final third
76% (94/124)50% (35/70)
Crosses
24% (8/33)14% (1/7)
Expected assists (xA)
0.760.84
Throw-ins
1717
Fouls
129
Tackles
63% (15/24)83% (10/12)
Duels won
4948
Clearances
1233
Interceptions
98
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
35
xGOT faced
0.870.90
Goals prevented
-0.130.90

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 54', Zambrano C. , Castillo J. ,
  • 57', Barcos H. 🟨,
  • 58', Quevedo K. 🟨,
  • 58', Martinez T. 🟨,
  • 60', Tandazo W. 🟨,
  • 65', Cantero A. , Cari P. ,
  • 65', Barcos H. , Paolo Guerrero ,
  • 69', Bordacahar C. , Cuesta B. ,
  • 74', Castillo J. 🟨,
  • 74', Quevedo K. , Soyer B. ,
  • 81', Cuesta B. 🟨,
  • 83', Orzan H. 🟨,
  • 84', 0 - 1, Gaibor F. (Pen),
  • 85', Guzman L. , Cabanillas N. ,
  • 85', Lazo M. , Barreda M. ,
  • 88', Cabrera Nakamura K. G. , Rodriguez G. ,
  • 90+6', Barrios P. 🟨,

Chances of winning


FBC Melgar
49.6%
Draw
29.1%
Alianza Lima
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.8% 29.4% 27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6% 30.6% 26.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • FBC Melgar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in FBC Melgar's performance.
  • Alianza Lima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alianza Lima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alianza Lima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.89
    (2.2)
    3.18
    (3.2)
    4.33
    (3.39)
    7.6%
    (6.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Melgar (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 3 and 2).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.
    • In recent matches, Melgar has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Alianza Lima is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Melgar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, Melgar is considered a favorite.
    • There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Cuesta B. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Alianza Lima: Archimbaud J. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Melgar: Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Alianza Lima: Cantero A. (Muscle Injury) Lavandeira Hernandez P. (Tendon Injury) Trauco M. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 23:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.4:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima were as follows:
    28.09.2024 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 1:1
    28.04.2024 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 1:0
    28.09.2023 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 0:0
    19.05.2023 FBC Melgar - Alianza Lima 2:1
    12.11.2022 Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar 2:0
    Latest results of FBC Melgar
    Latest results of Alianza Lima
    Peruvian Liga 1 Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1U. de Deportes16112337:122535
    2Alianza Lima16103318:10833
    3FBC Melgar1685326:18829
    4Alianza Atl1591525:151028
    5Deportivo Garcilaso1783628:181027
    6Sport Huancayo1683522:18427
    7Cusco1574425:18725
    8Sporting Cristal1581626:22425
    9Cienciano1657428:23522
    10Los Chankas1656523:24-121
    11Sport Boys1655625:25020
    12AD Tarma1655622:29-720
    13Grau1547419:20-119
    14Cajamarca1653817:33-1618
    15Binacional1645718:27-917
    16Juan Pablo II1543818:25-715
    17Comerciantes Unidos1525817:27-1011
    18Ayacucho16231112:27-159
    19Alianza Huanuco1515913:28-158

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