Alex Rybakov vs Maxim Mrva: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Result
1:2
24/02/2026 at 04:10 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lugano, hard - 1/16-finals
Alex Rybakov - Maxim Mrva - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
15
Double Faults
01
1st serve percentage
77%50%
1st serve points won
63% (50/79)67% (31/46)
2nd serve points won
39% (9/23)57% (26/46)
Break Points Saved
67% (8/12)56% (5/9)
1st return points won
33% (15/46)37% (29/79)
2nd return points won
43% (20/46)61% (14/23)
Break Points Converted
44% (4/9)33% (4/12)
Winners
2237
Unforced errors
5151
Net points won
69% (22/32)69% (9/13)
Service Points Won
58% (59/102)62% (57/92)
Return Points Won
38% (35/92)42% (43/102)
Total Points Won
48% (94/194)52% (100/194)
Last 10 balls
19
Match points saved
00
Service games won
73% (11/15)73% (11/15)
Return games won
27% (4/15)27% (4/15)
Total games won
50% (15/30)50% (15/30)

Chances of winning


Alex Rybakov
39.1%
Maxim Mrva
60.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
43.6% 56.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8% 51.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Alex Rybakov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
  • Maxim Mrva has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alex Rybakov than the current prediction. (+9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alex Rybakov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maxim Mrva than the current prediction. (-9.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maxim Mrva, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Alex Rybakov - Maxim Mrva Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.43
    (2.13)

    1.53
    (1.65)
    6.4%
    (7.6%)
    Preview Facts
    • Rybakov is ranked ATP: 295. Mrva is ranked ATP: 323.
    • Both players are struggling and far from their best.
    • Rybakov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Alex Rybakov
    Latest results of Maxim Mrva
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Budkov Kjaer N. (1)Bernet H. (WC)2 : 0
    2Cassone M.Nesterov P. (LL)1 : 2
    3Dodig M.Forejtek J. (Q)2 : 0
    4Gentzsch T.Skatov T. (7)0 : 2
    5Sachko V. (4)Brunclik P. (Q)0 : 2
    6Schwaerzler J. J.Basic M. (Q)2 : 0
    7Fatic N.Moro Canas A.1 : 2
    8Stricker D. (WC)Grenier H. (6)2 : 0
    9Rybakov A. (LL)Mrva M. (NG)1 : 2
    10Bertola R.Mmoh M.1 : 2
    11Gakhov I.Piraino G. (Q)2 : 1
    12Squire H.Piros Z. (3)0 : 2
    13Holmgren A. (8)Uchida K.2 : 1
    14Brunold M. (WC)Knaff A. (Q)2 : 1
    15Topo M. (RET.)Huesler M.1 : 1
    16Dietrich D. (Q)Glinka D. (2)0 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Budkov Kjaer N. (1)Nesterov P.2 : 0
    2Dodig M.Skatov T. (7)2 : 1
    3Brunclik P.Schwaerzler J. J.1 : 2
    4Moro Canas A.Stricker D.0 : 2
    5Mrva M.Mmoh M.2 : 1
    6Gakhov I.Piros Z. (3)0 : 2
    7Holmgren A. (8)Brunold M.0 : 2
    8Huesler M.Glinka D. (2)2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Budkov Kjaer N. (1)Dodig M.0 : 2
    2Schwaerzler J. J.Stricker D.2 : 0
    3Mrva M.Piros Z. (3)0 : 2
    4Brunold M.Huesler M.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Dodig M.Schwaerzler J. J.0 : 2
    2Piros Z. (3)Brunold M.2 : 0

    Final
    1Schwaerzler J. J.Piros Z. (3)1 : 2
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