Tiago Pereira vs Daniel Merida Aguilar: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis Lisbon Challenger Men Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar
Result
0:2
24/09/2025 at 05:05 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/8-finals
Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
00
Double Faults
21
1st Serve Percentage
68%64%
1st Serve Points Won
56% (20/36)79% (22/28)
2nd Serve Points Won
29% (5/17)56% (9/16)
Break Points Saved
29% (2/7)0% (0/1)
1st Return Points Won
21% (6/28)44% (16/36)
2nd Return Points Won
44% (7/16)71% (12/17)
Break Points Converted
100% (1/1)71% (5/7)
Service Points Won
47% (25/53)70% (31/44)
Return Points Won
30% (13/44)53% (28/53)
Total Points Won
39% (38/97)61% (59/97)
Last 10 Balls
46
Match Points Saved
00
Service Games Won
44% (4/9)88% (7/8)
Return Games Won
13% (1/8)56% (5/9)
Total Games Won
29% (5/17)71% (12/17)

Chances of winning


Tiago Pereira
29.4%
Daniel Merida Aguilar
70.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
37.2% 62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8% 65.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tiago Pereira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tiago Pereira's form might have worsened.
  • Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Daniel Merida Aguilar's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tiago Pereira than the current prediction. (+5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tiago Pereira, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Daniel Merida Aguilar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Tiago Pereira - Daniel Merida Aguilar Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.13
    (2.47)

    1.33
    (1.46)
    7%
    (9%)
    Preview Facts
    • Pereira is ranked ATP: 283. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 166.
    • Both players have been playing unpredictably.
    • Merida Aguilar will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • The players have not played against each other recently.
    Latest results of Tiago Pereira
    09.09.2025 Tiago Pereira - Andrew Paulson Paulson A. retired
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Kopriva V. (1)Pavlovic L.2 : 0
    2Ritschard A. (Q)Schwaerzler J. J. (NG)2 : 0
    3Travaglia S. (Alt)Dodig M. (NG)2 : 0
    4Negritu Ch. (Q)Faria J. (6)1 : 2
    5Carballes Baena R. (3)Seyboth Wild T.2 : 0
    6Llamas Ruiz P. (Q)Moro Canas A. (Q)2 : 0
    7Araujo P. (WC)Rocha H.0 : 2
    8Choinski J.Pellegrino A. (8)2 : 1
    9Galan D. E. (7)Trungelliti M.0 : 2
    10Den Ouden G.Ymer E. (Alt)2 : 0
    11Cecchinato M. (Q)Monteiro T.0 : 2
    12Rocha F. (Q)Buse I. (4)0 : 2
    13Moller E. (5)Pereira T. (WC)0 : 2
    14Merida Aguilar D.Kym J.2 : 1
    15Ferreira Silva F. (WC)Clarke J.2 : 1
    16Gaubas V.Taberner C. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Kopriva V. (1)Ritschard A.0 : 2
    2Travaglia S.Faria J. (6)2 : 1
    3Carballes Baena R. (RET.) (3)Llamas Ruiz P.0 : 1
    4Rocha H.Choinski J.2 : 0
    5Trungelliti M.Den Ouden G.2 : 0
    6Monteiro T.Buse I. (4)0 : 2
    7Pereira T.Merida Aguilar D.0 : 2
    8Ferreira Silva F.Gaubas V.0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Ritschard A.Travaglia S.1 : 2
    2Llamas Ruiz P.Rocha H.0 : 2
    3Trungelliti M.Buse I. (4)1 : 2
    4Merida Aguilar D.Gaubas V.0 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Travaglia S.Rocha H.1 : 2
    2Buse I. (4)Gaubas V.0 : 2

    Final
    1Rocha H.Gaubas V.1 : 2
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