Luca Nardi vs Matteo Arnaldi: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis ATP Tokyo Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi
Result
1:2
22/09/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals
Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
35
Double Faults
61
1st Serve Percentage
59%63%
1st Serve Points Won
60% (35/58)67% (38/57)
2nd Serve Points Won
38% (15/40)59% (20/34)
Break Points Saved
43% (6/14)67% (6/9)
1st Return Points Won
33% (19/57)40% (23/58)
2nd Return Points Won
41% (14/34)63% (25/40)
Break Points Converted
33% (3/9)57% (8/14)
Service Points Won
51% (50/98)64% (58/91)
Return Points Won
36% (33/91)49% (48/98)
Total Points Won
44% (83/189)56% (106/189)
Last 10 Balls
37
Match Points Saved
10
Service Games Won
43% (6/14)77% (10/13)
Return Games Won
23% (3/13)57% (8/14)
Total Games Won
33% (9/27)67% (18/27)

Chances of winning


Luca Nardi
26.8%
Matteo Arnaldi
73.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
33.9% 66.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38% 62%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Luca Nardi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luca Nardi's form might have worsened.
  • Matteo Arnaldi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matteo Arnaldi's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luca Nardi than the current prediction. (+11.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luca Nardi, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matteo Arnaldi than the current prediction. (-11.2%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matteo Arnaldi, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Luca Nardi - Matteo Arnaldi Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.61
    (2.75)

    1.32
    (1.41)
    3.5%
    (7.3%)
    Preview Facts
    • Nardi is ranked ATP: 85. Arnaldi is ranked ATP: 73.
    • Nardi has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • Arnaldi is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Nardi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Arnaldi is a strong favorite.
    • In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.
    Latest results of Luca Nardi
    17.09.2025 Aleksandar Kovacevic - Luca Nardi Canceled
    24.08.2025 Luca Nardi - Tomas Machac 0:3
    12.08.2025 Jakub Mensik - Luca Nardi Mensik J. retired
    Latest results of Matteo Arnaldi
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Baez S.2 : 0
    2Bergs Z.Tabilo A.2 : 1
    3Thompson J.Nakashima B.1 : 2
    4Fucsovics M. (Q)Tiafoe F. (8)2 : 1
    5Ruud C. (4)Mochizuki S. (WC)2 : 1
    6Munar J.Berrettini M.0 : 2
    7Dzumhur D.Vukic A. (Q)1 : 2
    8Altmaier D.Shapovalov D. (7)2 : 0
    9Humbert U. (6)Brooksby J. (PR)0 : 2
    10Nishioka Y. (WC)Darderi L.0 : 2
    11Michelsen A.Quinn E. (Q)0 : 2
    12Medjedovic H.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    13Machac T. (5)Shimabukuro S. (Q)0 : 2
    14Giron M.Korda S.1 : 2
    15Watanuki Y. (WC)Borges N.1 : 2
    16Diallo G.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    1/8-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Bergs Z.2 : 0
    2Nakashima B.Fucsovics M.2 : 0
    3Ruud C. (4)Berrettini M.2 : 0
    4Vukic A.Altmaier D.2 : 0
    5Brooksby J.Darderi L.2 : 0
    6Quinn E.Rune H. (3)0 : 2
    7Shimabukuro S.Korda S.0 : 2
    8Borges N.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Nakashima B.2 : 0
    2Ruud C. (4)Vukic A.2 : 0
    3Brooksby J.Rune H. (3)2 : 0
    4Korda S.Fritz T. (2)1 : 2

    Semi-finals
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Ruud C. (4)2 : 1
    2Brooksby J.Fritz T. (2)0 : 2

    Final
    1Alcaraz C. (1)Fritz T. (2)2 : 0
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