Tristan McCormick vs Luca Castagnola: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

Bet nowGamble Responsibly 18+
Tennis Columbus Challenger Men Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola
Result
2:1
14/09/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Columbus - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals
Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Aces
87
Double Faults
310
1st Serve Percentage
61%57%
1st Serve Points Won
75% (45/60)66% (39/59)
2nd Serve Points Won
42% (16/38)47% (21/45)
Break Points Saved
50% (4/8)56% (5/9)
1st Return Points Won
34% (20/59)25% (15/60)
2nd Return Points Won
53% (24/45)58% (22/38)
Break Points Converted
44% (4/9)50% (4/8)
Service Points Won
62% (61/98)58% (60/104)
Return Points Won
42% (44/104)38% (37/98)
Total Points Won
52% (105/202)48% (97/202)
Last 10 Balls
64
Match Points Saved
11
Service Games Won
75% (12/16)73% (11/15)
Return Games Won
27% (4/15)25% (4/16)
Total Games Won
52% (16/31)48% (15/31)

Chances of winning


Tristan McCormick
58.5%
Luca Castagnola
41.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
58.2% 41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.5% 39.5%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tristan McCormick has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Luca Castagnola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tristan McCormick than the current prediction. (+2%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Castagnola than the current prediction. (-2%)
  • Tristan McCormick - Luca Castagnola Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.58
    (1.57)

    2.23
    (2.19)
    8.1%
    (9.4%)
    Preview Facts
    • McCormick is ranked ATP: 485. Castagnola is ranked ATP: 635.
    • McCormick has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Castagnola has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Castagnola may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, the players have not faced each other.
    Latest results of Tristan McCormick
    Latest results of Luca Castagnola
    Draw
    Singles - Main

    1/16-finals
    1Ficovich J. P. (RET.) (1)Perez A.0 : 0
    2Papamalamis T. (JR)Boulais J. (Q)0 : 2
    3Ilagan A.Dominko S. (Q)2 : 1
    4Zheng M.Johns G. (8)2 : 0
    5Mejia N. (4)Jodar R.0 : 2
    6Rybakov A.Bouzige M.2 : 0
    7Stearns P. (Q)Masur D. (Q)1 : 2
    8Bondioli F.Martin A. (6)0 : 2
    9Damm M. (7)Kim A. (WC)2 : 0
    10Anthrop J. (WC)Ghibaudo A. (Q)1 : 2
    11Brunclik P. (Alt)Maloney P.0 : 2
    12Sekulic P. (PR)Trotter J. K. (3)0 : 2
    13Monday J. (5)Blanch Dar.1 : 2
    14Langmo C.Banerjee S. (Q)0 : 2
    15Zink T.Bernard A. (WC)2 : 0
    16Shelbayh A.Cassone M. (2)2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Perez A.Boulais J.2 : 0
    2Ilagan A.Zheng M.0 : 2
    3Jodar R.Rybakov A.2 : 0
    4Masur D.Martin A. (6)2 : 1
    5Damm M. (7)Ghibaudo A.2 : 0
    6Maloney P.Trotter J. K. (3)0 : 2
    7Blanch Dar.Banerjee S.1 : 2
    8Zink T.Shelbayh A.2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1Perez A.Zheng M.1 : 2
    2Jodar R.Masur D.0 : 2
    3Damm M. (7)Trotter J. K. (3)2 : 1
    4Banerjee S.Zink T.2 : 0

    Semi-finals
    1Zheng M.Masur D.2 : 0
    2Damm M. (7)Banerjee S.2 : 0

    Final
    1Zheng M.Damm M. (7)2 : 1
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