Milan vs Napoli: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Italian Serie A
Soccer Italian Serie A Milan - Napoli
Result
2:1
28/09/2025 at 14:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Serie A - Round 5
  • Referee: Chiffi D. (Ita)
Milan - Napoli - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.742.85
Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
619
Shots on target
37
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
17
Passes
83% (297/357)91% (548/601)
Yellow Cards
10
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.742.85
xG on target (xGOT)
0.643.68
Total shots
619
Shots on target
37
Shots off target
26
Blocked Shots
16
Shots inside the Box
512
Shots outside the Box
17
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
12
Corner Kicks
17
Touches in opposition box
1321
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
10
Free Kicks
77
Passes
83% (297/357)91% (548/601)
Long passes
39% (20/51)75% (18/24)
Passes in final third
63% (31/49)86% (166/192)
Crosses
50% (1/2)21% (7/33)
Expected assists (xA)
0.781.44
Throw-ins
913
Fouls
77
Tackles
55% (6/11)38% (5/13)
Duels won
2934
Clearances
247
Interceptions
93
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
61
xGOT faced
3.680.64
Goals prevented
2.68-1.36

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 0)
  • 3', 1 - 0, Saelemaekers A. ⚽, Pulisic C. (A),
  • 31', 2 - 0, Pulisic C. ⚽, Fofana Y. (A),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 57', Estupinan P. 🟥,
  • 59', Pulisic C. ↓, Bartesaghi D. ↑,
  • 60', 2 - 1, De Bruyne K. (Pen),
  • 68', Saelemaekers A. ↓, Athekame Z. ↑,
  • 69', Gimenez S. ↓, Leao R. ↑,
  • 72', De Bruyne K. ↓, Elmas E. ↑,
  • 73', Hojlund R. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
  • 73', McTominay S. ↓, David Neres ↑,
  • 77', Politano M. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
  • 80', Tomori F. ↓, De Winter K. ↑,
  • 80', Fofana Y. ↓, Loftus-Cheek R. ↑,
  • 90', Rabiot A. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Lobotka S. ↓, Gilmour B. ↑,

Chances of winning


Milan
48.1%		Draw
29.6%		Napoli
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
36.8% 28.7% 34.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1% 29% 34.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Milan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milan's performance.
  • Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Napoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milan than the current prediction. (-11%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milan that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+12%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Napoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
    •

    Milan - Napoli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.03 ↓
    (2.59)    		 3.28 ↓
    (3.32)    		 4.47 ↑
    (2.75)    		 2.2%
    (5.2%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
    What is the prediction for Milan - Napoli?
  • Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Milan will win (votes: 19 - 38%). Napoli will win (votes: 19 - 38%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 24%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Milan: 24.5% – 51.5%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 12 high ROI users predict this event. Milan (votes: 4 - 33.3%). Napoli (votes: 6 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Milan won 1.
    • Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.
    • Milan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Milan will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Milan: Jashari A. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Napoli: Buongiorno A. (Thigh Injury) Contini N. (Hand Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury) Olivera M. (Injury) Rrahmani A. (Thigh Injury) Spinazzola L. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Napoli: Mazzocchi P. (Muscle Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Milan won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Milan won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.6:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Milan - Napoli were as follows:
    30.03.2025 Napoli - Milan 2:1
    29.10.2024 Milan - Napoli 0:2
    11.02.2024 Milan - Napoli 1:0
    29.10.2023 Napoli - Milan 2:2
    18.04.2023 Napoli - Milan 1:1
    Latest results of Milan
    23.09.2025 Milan - Lecce 3:0 ✺
    20.09.2025 Udinese - Milan 0:3 ✺
    14.09.2025 Milan - Bologna 1:0 ✺
    29.08.2025 Lecce - Milan 0:2 ✺
    23.08.2025 Milan - Cremonese 1:2 ✺
    Latest results of Napoli
    22.09.2025 Napoli - Pisa 3:2 ✺
    18.09.2025 Manchester City - Napoli 2:0 ✺
    13.09.2025 Fiorentina - Napoli 1:3 ✺
    30.08.2025 Napoli - Cagliari 1:0 ✺
    23.08.2025 Sassuolo - Napoli 0:2 ✺
    Italian Serie A Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Napoli650112:6615
    2AS Roma65017:2515
    3AC Milan64119:3613
    4Inter640217:8912
    5Juventus63309:5412
    6Atalanta624011:5610
    7Bologna63129:5410
    8Como62317:529
    9Sassuolo63038:809
    10Cremonese62317:8-19
    11Cagliari62226:608
    12Udinese62226:9-38
    13Lazio621310:737
    14Parma61233:7-45
    15Lecce61235:10-55
    16Torino61235:13-85
    17Fiorentina60334:8-43
    18Verona60332:9-73
    19Genoa60243:9-62
    20Pisa60243:10-72

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B

    Which TV channels are streaming of Milan - Napoli?
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