Paris Saint-Germain vs Arsenal: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer UEFA Champions League
Soccer UEFA Champions League Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal
Result
2:1
07/05/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals
  • Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)
Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.743.14
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
1119
Shots on target
64
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
26
Passes
76% (242/318)79% (283/356)
Yellow Cards
24
Expected Goals (xG)
1.743.14
xG on target (xGOT)
3.562.13
Total shots
1119
Shots on target
64
Shots off target
37
Blocked Shots
28
Shots inside the Box
917
Shots outside the Box
22
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
24
Corner Kicks
26
Touches in opposition box
2437
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
11
Free Kicks
1111
Passes
76% (242/318)79% (283/356)
Long passes
33% (17/51)47% (22/47)
Passes in final third
71% (48/68)75% (126/169)
Crosses
0% (0/6)33% (9/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.781.60
Throw-ins
1726
Fouls
1111
Tackles
43% (13/30)44% (7/16)
Duels won
6749
Clearances
458
Interceptions
76
Errors leading to shot
02
Errors leading to goal
10
Goalkeeper Saves
34
xGOT faced
2.133.56
Goals prevented
1.131.56

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', Mendes N. 🟨,
  • 26', Rice D. 🟨,
  • 27', 1 - 0, Ruiz F. ⚽,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 56', Lewis-Skelly M. 🟨,
  • 68', Lewis-Skelly M. ↓, Calafiori R. ↑,
  • 69', Martinelli G. ↓, Trossard L. ↑,
  • 69', Vitinha (Pen),
  • 70', Barcola B. ↓, Dembele O. ↑,
  • 72', 2 - 0, Hakimi A. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
  • 74', Doue D. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
  • 76', 2 - 1, Saka B. ⚽,
  • 83', Timber J. ↓, White B. ↑,
  • 86', Calafiori R. 🟨,
  • 86', Kvaratskhelia K. 🟨,
  • 86', Saka B. 🟨,
  • 88', Mendes N. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,

Chances of winning


Paris Saint-Germain
42.9%		Draw
27.1%		Arsenal
30%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
45.3% 26.3% 28.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8% 27.8% 26.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Arsenal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+4.9%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
    •

    Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.24 ↑
    (2.14)    		 3.57 ↓
    (3.68)    		 3.22 ↓
    (3.4)    		 3.6%
    (3.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal?
  • Users Predictions: 105 users predict this event. PSG will win (votes: 56 - 53.3%). Arsenal will win (votes: 30 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 19 - 18.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 43.8% – 62.8%. The data is statistically significant.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 22 high ROI users predict this event. PSG (votes: 14 - 63.6%). Arsenal (votes: 7 - 31.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%).
    • AH 0 - Arsenal (votes: 4 - 100%).
    • AH -0.25 - Arsenal (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • 1st leg result: 1-0. 2nd leg.
    • Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
    • PSG will hold a modest advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in PSG: Kimpembe P. (Leg Injury)
    • There will not play in Arsenal: Gabriel (Hamstring Injury) Gabriel Jesus (Knee Injury) Havertz K. (Hamstring Injury) Jorginho (Chest Injury) Tomiyasu T. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in PSG: Lee Kang-In (Injury)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSG won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1:2).
    • Including home match between the teams, PSG won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal were as follows:
    29.04.2025 Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain 0:1
    01.10.2024 Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain 2:0
    Latest results of Paris Saint-Germain
    03.05.2025 Strasbourg - Paris Saint-Germain 2:1 ✺
    29.04.2025 Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain 0:1 ✺
    25.04.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Nice 1:3 ✺
    22.04.2025 Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain 1:1 ✺
    19.04.2025 Paris Saint-Germain - Le Havre 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Arsenal
    03.05.2025 Arsenal - Bournemouth 1:2 ✺
    29.04.2025 Arsenal - Paris Saint-Germain 0:1 ✺
    23.04.2025 Arsenal - Crystal Palace 2:2 ✺
    20.04.2025 Ipswich Town - Arsenal 0:4 ✺
    16.04.2025 Real Madrid - Arsenal 1:2 ✺
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/8-finals
    1LevadiaRFS
    2Iberia 1999Malmo FF
    3ZalgirisHamrun
    4ByeDyn. Kyiv
    5PafosBye
    6ByeMaccabi Tel Aviv
    7VikingurLincoln Red Imps
    8ByeCrvena zvezda
    9NoahBuducnost
    10ByeFerencvaros
    11Lech PoznanBye
    12EgnatiaBreidablik
    13FC CopenhagenBye
    14DritaDifferdange
    15RijekaBye
    16LudogoretsDin. Minsk
    17TNSShkendija
    18FCSBInter Escaldes
    19Slovan BratislavaBye
    20VirtusZrinjski
    21ShelbourneLinfield
    22ByeQarabag
    23KuPSMilsami
    24O. LjubljanaKairat Almaty
    25BrannBye
    26ByeSalzburg
    27PlzenBye
    28ByeServette
    29RangersBye
    30ByePanathinaikos

    Quarter-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3Dyn. Kyiv
    3PafosMaccabi Tel Aviv
    4TBD #7Crvena zvezda
    5TBD #9Ferencvaros
    6Lech PoznanTBD #12
    7FC CopenhagenTBD #14
    8RijekaTBD #16
    9TBD #17TBD #18
    10Slovan BratislavaTBD #20
    11TBD #21Qarabag
    12TBD #23TBD #24
    13BrannSalzburg
    14PlzenServette
    15RangersPanathinaikos
    Which TV channels are streaming of Paris Saint-Germain - Arsenal?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
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