Nõmme Kalju vs Levadia Tallinn: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Estonian Cup Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn
Result
4:3 penalties
24/05/2025 at 12:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : Estonian Cup - Final
Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Ball Possession
47%53%
Total shots
1614
Shots on target
77
Corner Kicks
82
Yellow Cards
45
Total shots
1614
Shots on target
77
Shots off target
97
Corner Kicks
82
Goalkeeper Saves
44

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Ainsalu M. ,
  • 40', Tambedou B. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 2)
  • 48', 0 - 2, Joao Pedro (Pen),
  • 55', Nikolajev A. , Tarassenkov D. ,
  • 55', Patrikejevs I. , Jabir I. ,
  • 60', Peetson R. , Lepistu B. ,
  • 60', Tambedou B. , Gero A. ,
  • 66', Mashchenko D. 🟨,
  • 70', Ivanov N. 🟨,
  • 72', 1 - 2, Kask K. ,
  • 72', Ani O. 🟨,
  • 80', 2 - 2, Jabir I. ,
  • 83', Liivak F. 🟨,
  • 83', Otoo E. , Tur E. ,
  • 83', Liivak F. , Musaba R. ,
  • 86', 3 - 2, Ivanov N. (Pen),
  • 89', 3 - 3, Lepistu B. ,
  • 90+2', Alexandre , Mavretic T. ,
  • 90+7', Mashchenko D. , Korre U. ,
  • Extra Time (0 - 0)
  • 91', Kask K. , Orlov M. ,
  • 102', Guilherme Smith 🟨,
  • 102', Roosnupp M. 🟨,
  • 102', Roosnupp M. , Zakarlyuka A. ,
  • 106', Podholjuzin M. , Liit S. ,
  • 114', Schjonning-Larsen M. 🟨,
  • 118', Korre U. 🟨,
  • Penalties (4 - 1)
  • 1, Tarassenkov D. (Pen),
  • 1, Ainsalu M. (Pen),
  • 2, Orlov M. (Pen),
  • 2, Tur E. (Pen),
  • 3, Siht R. (Pen),
  • 3, Zakarlyuka A. (Pen),
  • 4, Tambedou M. (Pen),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Nõmme Kalju
26.6%
Draw
25.9%
Levadia Tallinn
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
31.4% 26.5% 42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7% 26.2% 41.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nõmme Kalju has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
  • Levadia Tallinn has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Levadia Tallinn's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nõmme Kalju than the current prediction. (+5.1%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nõmme Kalju, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Levadia Tallinn than the current prediction. (-5.8%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Levadia Tallinn, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.45
    (2.91)
    3.54
    (3.45)
    1.93
    (2.18)
    9.3%
    (9.3%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • Preview Facts
    • Played on the field of the visiting team.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 1.
    • Nõmme Kalju is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).
    • Levadia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Levadia is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nõmme Kalju won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 18:39. (average 0.9:2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Nõmme Kalju won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1:1.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn were as follows:
    04.05.2025 Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn 2:0
    30.03.2025 Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju 2:1
    22.02.2025 Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju 3:2
    27.10.2024 Nõmme Kalju - Levadia Tallinn 0:4
    25.08.2024 Levadia Tallinn - Nõmme Kalju 3:0
    Latest results of Nõmme Kalju
    Latest results of Levadia Tallinn
    Draw
    2025/26

    1/64-finals
    1TamperBye
    2ByeRumori Calcio
    3Flora U19Bye
    4ByeVastseliina Tannem
    5KohvileBye
    6ByeHelm
    7Flora U18Bye
    8ByeFlora U21
    9Tabasalu UlasabatBye
    10ByeEston Villa
    11Parnu JK VaprusBye
    12Olympic TallinnTulevik
    13Tartu WelcoKuusalu Kalev
    14ByeTartu Helios
    15Tallinna FC ZapoosBye
    16Hell HuntLootos
    17Jarva-JaaniBye
    18Keila JKKallaste United
    19Tallinna Kalev IIIBye
    20ByeEstHam United
    21Tallinna WolvesSoccernet
    22ByeRaasiku Joker
    23Viimsi LovidBye
    24ByeTallinna Smsraha
    25Tartu Welco 2Bye
    26ByeNarva
    27Tartu KalevElva
    28ByeLegion
    29Maardu AliensBye
    30ByeJK Poseidon
    31Arukula VigriBye
    32ByeKristiine
    33Harju JK LaagriBye
    34ByeTransferWise
    35Viimsi JKBye
    36ByeTalTech
    37Nomme UtdBye
    38ByeHarju JK Laagri III
    39HiiumaaBye
    40ByeTallinna Kalev
    41RaplamaaSaku Sporting
    42Marjamaa KompaniiKubik
    43Johvi PhoenixBye
    44ByeKose II
    45KoseBye
    46ByeKuressaare
    47TammekaBye
    48ByeTabasalu
    49FC TallinnBye
    50ByeZealot Sporting
    51Lootus JK JarveBye
    52JK ArsenalRae Spordikool
    53Tallinna Kalev U21Vana Hea Puur
    54HaapsaluKohtla-Jarve Linnameeskond
    55Saue LaagriBye
    56ByeMaksatransport

    1/32-finals
    1TamperRumori Calcio
    2Flora U19Vastseliina Tannem
    3KohvileHelm
    4Flora U18Flora U21
    5Tabasalu UlasabatEston Villa
    6Parnu JK VaprusTBD #12
    7TBD #13Tartu Helios
    8Tallinna FC ZapoosTBD #16
    9Jarva-JaaniTBD #18
    10Tallinna Kalev IIIEstHam United
    11TBD #21Raasiku Joker
    12Viimsi LovidTallinna Smsraha
    13Tartu Welco 2Narva
    14TBD #27Legion
    15Maardu AliensJK Poseidon
    16Arukula VigriKristiine
    17Harju JK LaagriTransferWise
    18Viimsi JKTalTech
    19Nomme UtdHarju JK Laagri III
    20HiiumaaTallinna Kalev
    21TBD #41TBD #42
    22Johvi PhoenixKose II
    23KoseKuressaare
    24TammekaTabasalu
    25FC TallinnZealot Sporting
    26Lootus JK JarveTBD #52
    27TBD #53TBD #54
    28Saue LaagriMaksatransport
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