Cerezo Osaka vs Gamba Osaka: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/07/2025 at 06:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Yodoko Sakura Stadium (Osaka).

: J1 League - Round 23

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.55	1.59
Ball Possession
62%	38%
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
5	7
Passes
87% (415/479)	77% (225/293)
Yellow Cards
0	3
Expected Goals (xG)
2.55	1.59
xG on target (xGOT)
0.75	0.30
Total shots
18	14
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
10	4
Blocked Shots
3	6
Shots inside the Box
12	9
Shots outside the Box
6	5
Hit the Woodwork
2	0
Big Chances
3	1
Corner Kicks
5	7
Touches in opposition box
31	16
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
14	9
Passes
87% (415/479)	77% (225/293)
Long passes
49% (22/45)	35% (17/49)
Passes in final third
80% (156/196)	65% (62/96)
Crosses
35% (8/23)	38% (5/13)
Expected assists (xA)
1.43	0.85
Throw-ins
24	22
Fouls
9	14
Tackles
67% (14/21)	50% (4/8)
Duels won
58	34
Clearances
14	35
Interceptions
6	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5
xGOT faced
0.30	0.75
Goals prevented
-0.70	0.75

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Takahashi N. ↓, Noborizato K. ↑,
58', Miura G. ↓, Fukuoka S. ↑,
61', Abe S. ↓, Suzuki T. ↑,
61', Kurata S. ↓, Juan Alano ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Handa R. ⚽, Lavi N. (A),
73', Okuda H. ↓, Cools D. ↑,
73', Thiago Andrade ↓, Homma S. ↑,
73', Nakajima M. ↓, Shibayama M. ↑,
79', Yamashita R. 🟨,
81', Yamashita R. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
81', Lavi N. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
84', Kagawa S. ↓, Kida H. ↑,
85', Tanaka S. ↓, Sakata R. ↑,
87', Hummet D. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
90', Handa R. 🟨,
90+5', Juan Alano 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Cerezo Osaka
41%

Draw
26.9%

Gamba Osaka
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

26.3%

33.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

25.9%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↓ (2.36)	3.5 ↓ (3.64)	2.9 ↑ (2.88)	6.5% (4.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka will win (votes: 5 - 41.7%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.7% – 78.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Cerezo Osaka (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 12).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 3.
Cerezo Osaka is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Gamba Osaka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Cerezo Osaka will hold a modest advantage in this match.
There will not play in Cerezo Osaka: Hirano Y. (Knee Injury) Uejo S. (Inactive)
There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Okunuki K. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerezo Osaka won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:17. (average 1.5:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerezo Osaka won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1:0.7).

How many head-to-head matches has Cerezo Osaka won against Gamba Osaka?

Cerezo Osaka has won 4 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Cerezo Osaka?

Gamba Osaka has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka were as follows:

14.02.2025 Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka 2:5

02.10.2024 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 1:0

06.05.2024 Gamba Osaka - Cerezo Osaka 1:0

28.10.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 1:0

18.06.2023 Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka 0:1

Latest results of Cerezo Osaka

21.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Tokyo Verdy 2:1 ✺

14.06.2025 Tokyo - Cerezo Osaka 2:2 ✺

11.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Arterivo Wakayama 5:0 ✺

08.06.2025 Yokohama FC - Cerezo Osaka 4:0 ✺

04.06.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Yokohama FC 4:1 ✺

Latest results of Gamba Osaka

28.06.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Gamba Osaka 3:1 ✺

22.06.2025 Gamba Osaka - Tokyo 2:0 ✺

18.06.2025 Gamba Osaka - Veertien Mie 2:1 ✺

15.06.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Gamba Osaka 0:0 ✺

31.05.2025 Gamba Osaka - Kashima Antlers 0:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kyoto	28	16	6	6	52:30	22	54
2	Vissel Kobe	29	16	5	8	37:26	11	53
3	Kashima Antlers	27	16	3	8	40:26	14	51
4	Machida	28	15	5	8	42:26	16	50
5	Kashiwa Reysol	27	14	8	5	40:27	13	50
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	28	15	4	9	33:19	14	49
7	Urawa Reds	27	12	8	7	38:30	8	44
8	Kawasaki Frontale	27	11	9	7	45:35	10	42
9	Okayama	28	11	6	11	26:28	-2	39
10	Cerezo Osaka	27	10	8	9	41:38	3	38
11	Avispa Fukuoka	27	9	10	8	27:26	1	37
12	Gamba Osaka	28	11	4	13	33:40	-7	37
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	27	8	8	11	30:35	-5	32
14	Verdy	28	8	8	12	16:28	-12	32
15	FC Tokyo	27	8	6	13	29:41	-12	30
16	Nagoya Grampus	27	7	7	13	33:41	-8	28
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	28	6	7	15	26:35	-9	25
18	Shonan Bellmare	27	6	7	14	22:42	-20	25
19	Yokohama FC	28	6	5	17	18:35	-17	23
20	Albirex Niigata	27	4	8	15	27:47	-20	20

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League

Which TV channels are streaming of Cerezo Osaka - Gamba Osaka?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Australia	Optus Sport
China	K-Ball
India	FanCode, FanCode
Japan	DAZN Japan
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto