Real Madrid vs Valencia: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

05/04/2025 at 10:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid).

: LaLiga - Round 30
Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
3.70	0.81
Ball Possession
65%	35%
Total shots
21	10
Shots on target
9	2
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
9	4
Passes
91% (564/621)	77% (260/338)
Yellow Cards
0	3
Expected Goals (xG)
3.70	0.81
xG on target (xGOT)
3.28	0.59
Total shots
21	10
Shots on target
9	2
Shots off target
8	5
Blocked Shots
4	3
Shots inside the Box
15	7
Shots outside the Box
6	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
0	2
Big Chances
4	2
Corner Kicks
9	4
Touches in opposition box
46	16
Offsides
6	1
Free Kicks
13	10
Passes
91% (564/621)	77% (260/338)
Long passes
78% (36/46)	45% (27/60)
Passes in final third
86% (190/221)	69% (69/100)
Crosses
23% (6/26)	71% (5/7)
Expected assists (xA)
2.71	0.96
Fouls
10	13
Tackles
59% (13/22)	72% (13/18)
Duels won
61	47
Clearances Total
7	31
Interceptions
13	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
0	8
xGOT faced
0.59	3.28
Goals prevented
-1.41	2.28

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
10', Tarrega C. 🟨,
13', Vinicius Junior (Pen),
15', 0 - 1, Diakhaby M. ⚽, Almeida A. (A),
22', Ancelotti C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sadiq U. 🟨,
50', 1 - 1, Vinicius Junior ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
57', Diaz B. ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
59', Sadiq U. ↓, Mir R. ↑,
74', Guerra J. ↓, Pepelu ↑,
74', Almeida A. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
74', Aarons M. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
77', Modric L. ↓, Endrick ↑,
77', Vinicius Junior ↓, Alaba D. ↑,
77', Garcia F. ↓, Camavinga E. ↑,
85', Lucas ↓, Guler A. ↑,
90+4', Barrenechea E. ↓, Guillamon H. ↑,
90+5', 1 - 2, Duro H. ⚽, Mir R. (A),
90+8', Aarons M. 🟨,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/bddjdjwp

Chances of winning

Real Madrid
74.7%

Draw
15.5%

Valencia
9.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

17.3%

11.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.2%

17.1%

11.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Valencia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Real Madrid - Valencia Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.29 ↓ (1.35)	6.25 ↑ (5.57)	10.01 ↑ (8.42)	3.5% (4%)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

Watch this match and Spanish LaLiga with fubo (for US customers)

Network on : ESPN Deportes

What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Valencia?

Users Predictions: 57 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 51 - 89.5%). Valencia will win (votes: 3 - 5.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 81.5% – 97.5%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:0.

Preview Facts

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16).
Last 5 head-to-head matches Real won 3.
Real is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).
Recent matches Valencia is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Valencia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
In this match Real is the unquestionable favorite.
There will not play in Real: Carvajal D. (Knee Injury) Courtois T. (Muscle Injury) Eder Militao (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Valencia: Correia T. (Knee Injury) Foulquier D. (Yellow Cards) Gaya J. (Yellow Cards) Rioja L. (Yellow Cards)
There are questionable in Real: Ceballos D. (Muscle Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Valencia: Ivan Jaime (Hamstring Injury)
Last 20 head-to-head matches Real won 13 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 44:24 (average 2.2:1.2).
Including matches at home between the teams Real won 9 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 27:8 (average 2.7:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Real Madrid won against Valencia?

Real Madrid has won 4 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Valencia won against Real Madrid?

Valencia has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Valencia were as follows:

03.01.2025 Valencia - Real Madrid 1:2

02.03.2024 Valencia - Real Madrid 2:2

11.11.2023 Real Madrid - Valencia 5:1

21.05.2023 Valencia - Real Madrid 1:0

02.02.2023 Real Madrid - Valencia 2:0

Latest results of Real Madrid

01.04.2025 Real Madrid - Real Sociedad 4:4 ✺

29.03.2025 Real Madrid - Leganés 3:2 ✺

15.03.2025 Villarreal - Real Madrid 1:2 ✺

12.03.2025 Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid 1:1 ✺

09.03.2025 Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Valencia

30.03.2025 Valencia - Mallorca 1:0 ✺

15.03.2025 Girona - Valencia 1:1 ✺

08.03.2025 Valencia - Valladolid 2:1 ✺

02.03.2025 Osasuna - Valencia 3:3 ✺

22.02.2025 Valencia - Atlético Madrid 0:3 ✺

Spanish LaLiga Table

2024/25

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Barcelona	38	28	4	6	102:39	63	88
2	Real Madrid	38	26	6	6	78:38	40	84
3	Atl. Madrid	38	22	10	6	68:30	38	76
4	Ath Bilbao	38	19	13	6	54:29	25	70
5	Villarreal	38	20	10	8	71:51	20	70
6	Betis	38	16	12	10	57:50	7	60
7	Celta Vigo	38	16	7	15	59:57	2	55
8	Rayo Vallecano	38	13	13	12	41:45	-4	52
9	Osasuna	38	12	16	10	48:52	-4	52
10	Mallorca	38	13	9	16	35:44	-9	48
11	Real Sociedad	38	13	7	18	35:46	-11	46
12	Valencia	38	11	13	14	44:54	-10	46
13	Getafe	38	11	9	18	34:39	-5	42
14	Espanyol	38	11	9	18	40:51	-11	42
15	Alaves	38	10	12	16	38:48	-10	42
16	Girona	38	11	8	19	44:60	-16	41
17	Sevilla	38	10	11	17	42:55	-13	41
18	Leganes	38	9	13	16	39:56	-17	40
19	Las Palmas	38	8	8	22	40:61	-21	32
20	Valladolid	38	4	4	30	26:90	-64	16

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ LaLiga2

Which TV channels are streaming of Real Madrid - Valencia?

It is being streamed on various channels, including:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	K-Sport 1, SuperSport 1
Angola	Z Sport La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 1 Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	GXR World
Indonesia	beIN Connect, RCTI+, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Plus, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte, SportsMax 2 Caribbean, SportsMax App Caribbean
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Poland, CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3
Taiwan	DAZN
Tanzania	Azam Sports 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	Exxen, S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22, SCTV Online
World	Disney+, Setanta Sports 2 Eurasia