Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Soccer Spanish LaLiga Real Madrid - Villarreal
Result
3:1
04/10/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : LaLiga - Round 8
  • Referee: Cuadra G. (Esp)
Real Madrid - Villarreal - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
3.551.05
Ball Possession
69%31%
Total shots
269
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
40
Passes
92% (651/708)81% (256/317)
Yellow Cards
24
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
3.551.05
xG on target (xGOT)
2.330.97
Total shots
269
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
103
Blocked Shots
94
Shots inside the Box
163
Shots outside the Box
106
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
72
Corner Kicks
40
Touches in opposition box
5711
Accurate through passes
13
Offsides
00
Free Kicks
149
Passes
92% (651/708)81% (256/317)
Long passes
55% (17/31)39% (16/41)
Passes in final third
87% (243/278)70% (66/94)
Crosses
50% (8/16)0% (0/4)
Expected assists (xA)
2.310.52
Throw-ins
1915
Fouls
914
Tackles
46% (12/26)52% (15/29)
Duels won
6248
Clearances
1818
Interceptions
46
Errors leading to shot
11
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
14
xGOT faced
0.972.33
Goals prevented
-0.03-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 12', Cardona S. 🟨,
  • 21', Mourino S. 🟨,
  • 33', Tchouameni A. 🟨,
  • 45+1', Mastantuono F. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (3 - 1)
  • 46', Moleiro A. , Mikautadze G. ,
  • 46', Buchanan T. , Pepe N. ,
  • 47', 1 - 0, Vinicius Junior , Mbappe K. (A),
  • 64', Guler A. , Bellingham J. ,
  • 64', Ceballos D. , Camavinga E. ,
  • 69', Gueye P. 🟨,
  • 69', 2 - 0, Vinicius Junior (Pen),
  • 73', 2 - 1, Mikautadze G. , Gueye P. (A),
  • 73', Gueye P. , Pedraza A. ,
  • 75', Mastantuono F. , Diaz B. ,
  • 77', Mourino S. 🟨,
  • 81', 3 - 1, Mbappe K. , Diaz B. (A),
  • 82', Oluwaseyi T. , Altimira A. ,
  • 83', Mbappe K. , Rodrygo ,
  • 86', Comesana S. , Parejo D. ,

Chances of winning


Real Madrid
67.2%
Draw
18.9%
Villarreal
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
65% 18.9% 16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8% 18.1% 15.4%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • Villarreal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villarreal than the current prediction. (+1.5%)
  • Real Madrid - Villarreal Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.44
    (1.45)
    5.08
    (4.99)
    6.79
    (5.85)
    4%
    (6.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
  • What is the prediction for Real Madrid - Villarreal?
  • Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 53 - 89.8%). Villarreal will win (votes: 3 - 5.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 5.1%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 82.1%97.5%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Real Madrid will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 3.
    • At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
    • Real may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Real is the obvious favorite.
    • There will not play in Real: Alexander-Arnold T. (Hamstring Injury) Carvajal D. (Calf Injury) Mendy F. (Hamstring Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)
    • There will not play in Villarreal: Cabanes P. (Knee Injury) Costa L. (Knee Injury) Foyth J. (Muscle Injury) Kambwala W. (Hamstring Injury) Moreno G. (Hamstring Injury) Navarro P. (International duty) Perez A. (Muscle Injury)
    • We predict that Real will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 39:28. (average 2:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Real won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:10. (average 1.9:1).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Real Madrid - Villarreal were as follows:
    15.03.2025 Villarreal - Real Madrid 1:2
    05.10.2024 Real Madrid - Villarreal 2:0
    19.05.2024 Villarreal - Real Madrid 4:4
    17.12.2023 Real Madrid - Villarreal 4:1
    08.04.2023 Real Madrid - Villarreal 2:3
    Latest results of Real Madrid
    30.09.2025 Kairat - Real Madrid 0:5
    23.09.2025 Levante - Real Madrid 1:4
    20.09.2025 Real Madrid - Espanyol 2:0
    Latest results of Villarreal
    01.10.2025 Villarreal - Juventus 2:2
    23.09.2025 Sevilla - Villarreal 1:2
    20.09.2025 Villarreal - Osasuna 2:1
    Spanish LaLiga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Real Madrid870119:91021
    2Barcelona861122:91319
    3Villarreal851214:8616
    4Betis843113:8515
    5Atl. Madrid834115:10513
    6Sevilla841315:11413
    7Elche834111:9213
    8Ath Bilbao84139:9013
    9Espanyol833211:11012
    10Alaves83239:8111
    11Getafe83239:11-211
    12Osasuna83147:8-110
    13Levante822413:14-18
    14Rayo Vallecano82248:10-28
    15Valencia822410:14-48
    16Celta Vigo80627:10-36
    17R. Oviedo82064:14-106
    18Girona81345:17-126
    19Real Sociedad81257:12-55
    20Mallorca81257:13-65

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ LaLiga2

    Which TV channels are streaming of Real Madrid - Villarreal?
    It is being streamed on various channels, including:
    afghanistanAfghanistanSolh Sports 1
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    asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, TOD
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    chinaChinaiQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
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    czech-republicCzech-republicNova Sport 4, Oneplay
    denmarkDenmarkTV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
    europeEuropeSetanta Sports 2 Baltic
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    laosLaosbeIN Connect
    macaoMacaoMacau Cable TV 35 Sports
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    moldovaMoldovaSetanta Sports 2
    mozambiqueMozambiqueStartimes Mania
    netherlandsNetherlandsZiggo Sport
    new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
    nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport LaLiga, Supersport Maximo 1
    north-central-americaNorth-central-americaRUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
    north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaTDM Desporto
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    polandPolandEleven Sports 1
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    singaporeSingaporebeIN Sport 1
    slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
    sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
    south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga, Supersport Maximo 1
    south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
    spainSpainDAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar, Movistar Plus+
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