Tampa Bay Lightning vs Ottawa Senators: Where to Watch, Predictions, Stats

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Hockey NHL Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators
Result
4:5
09/10/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • : NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators - Gamble Responsibly 18+
00:00 / 90:00
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Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2534
Shots off target
1312
Shooting PCT
16% (4/25)14.71% (5/34)
Blocked Shots
1018
Goalkeeper Saves
2921
Saves PCT
87.88% (29/33)84% (21/25)
Penalties
87
PIM
2220
Power-play Goals
21
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
28.57% (2/7)12.5% (1/8)
Pen. Killing PCT
87.5% (7/8)71.43% (5/7)
Hits
4951
Faceoffs Won
2530
Faceoffs %
45.4554.55
Giveaways
1613
Takeaways
42
Empty Net Goals
01

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (3 - 1)
  • 02:26, Douglas C. (5 min),
  • 02:26, MacDermid K. (5 min),
  • 04:45, Cozens D. (2 min),
  • 05:35, 1 - 0, Bjorkstrand O. (G), Guentzel J. (A), Point B. (A2)
  • 07:00, 2 - 0, Point B. (G), Guentzel J. (A), Raddysh D. (A2)
  • 09:10, Hagel B. (2 min),
  • 10:18, 2 - 1, Cozens D. (G), Tkachuk B. (A), Sanderson J. (A2)
  • 12:34, Cirelli A. (2 min),
  • 12:34, Chabot T. (2 min),
  • 12:34, Tkachuk B. (2 min),
  • 12:34, Hagel B. (2 min),
  • 12:38, Lilleberg E. (5 min),
  • 12:38, Sebrango D. (5 min),
  • 12:58, Perron D. (2 min),
  • 14:46, 3 - 1, Kucherov N. (G), Hedman V. (A), Point B. (A2)
  • 15:19, Holmberg P. (2 min),
  • 2nd Period (0 - 2)
  • 00:42, 3 - 2, Zub A. (G), Tkachuk B. (A), Stutzle T. (A2)
  • 07:53, Chaffee M. (2 min),
  • 15:09, 3 - 3, Pinto S. (G), Zub A. (A), Tkachuk B. (A2)
  • 18:31, Chaffee M. (2 min),
  • 3rd Period (1 - 2)
  • 02:23, Zub A. (2 min),
  • 18:13, 3 - 4, Pinto S. (G), Sanderson J. (A),
  • 19:12, 3 - 5, Giroux C. (G), Pinto S. (A), Zub A. (A2)
  • 19:46, 4 - 5, Kucherov N. (G), Raddysh D. (A), Hedman V. (A2)

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tampa Bay Lightning
48.9%
Draw
21.9%
Ottawa Senators
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
46.7% 21.4% 31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2% 20.7% 30.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)
  • Ottawa Senators has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ottawa Senators than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.94
    (2.02)
    4.32
    (4.4)
    3.2
    (2.96)
    5.9%
    (6.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 5.75
    What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators?
  • Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Ottawa will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 3:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 2.
    • Tampa Bay is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).
    • Ottawa has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Tampa Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.
    • Tampa Bay is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Tampa Bay: Hedman V. (Injury) Paul N. (Upper-Body Injury)
    • There will not play in Ottawa: Batherson D. (Upper-Body Injury)
    • There are questionable in Ottawa: Kleven T. (Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 69:67. (average 3.5:3.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 33:21. (average 3.7:2.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators were as follows:
    03.04.2025 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:1
    06.02.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 5:1
    04.02.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 4:3
    19.10.2024 Ottawa Senators - Tampa Bay Lightning 5:4
    11.04.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Ottawa Senators 2:3
    Latest results of Ottawa Senators
    NHL Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Colorado Avalanche4301013:87
    2Dallas Stars3210015:106
    3Vegas Golden Knights4112014:136
    4Edmonton Oilers320108:55
    5Seattle Kraken311109:75
    6Nashville Predators4201112:125
    7Winnipeg Jets3200112:94
    8Anaheim Ducks3110112:124
    9St. Louis Blues320019:94
    10Minnesota Wild4110215:154
    11Chicago Blackhawks4101210:113
    12Los Angeles Kings4011212:163
    13Vancouver Canucks310028:92
    14Utah Mammoth301025:72
    15San Jose Sharks3002110:162
    16Calgary Flames401039:162


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Carolina Hurricanes3210015:76
    2Boston Bruins4210113:96
    3Montreal Canadiens4210115:126
    4Florida Panthers4300113:106
    5Washington Capitals421019:76
    6New Jersey Devils3200111:114
    7Detroit Red Wings3200110:104
    8Toronto Maple Leafs4200217:154
    9Pittsburgh Penguins4200211:134
    10New York Rangers5200310:74
    11Philadelphia Flyers310119:83
    12Tampa Bay Lightning4101213:163
    13Columbus Blue Jackets3100210:92
    14Ottawa Senators310028:142
    15New York Islanders300037:130
    16Buffalo Sabres300032:100

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